Bleak outlook without stimulus: More layoffs, anemic growth

Bleak outlook without stimulus: More layoffs, anemic growth

SeattlePI.com

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WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump's move Tuesday to cut off talks on another government aid package will further weaken an economy straining to recover from an epic collapse, economists say, and deepen the hardships for jobless Americans and struggling businesses.

Half of all small businesses expect to need more aid from the government over the next 12 months to survive, according to a survey by the right-leaning National Federation of Independent Business. Sales for about one-fifth of small companies are still down 50% or more from pre-pandemic levels, the NFIB said.

For roughly 25 million laid-off Americans who are receiving unemployment aid, weekly payments, on average, have shrunk by two-thirds since a $600-a-week federal benefit expired more than two months ago. Trump did provide an extra $300 for six weeks. But that money has also run out.

Economists have warned that without further aid, families across the country will struggle in coming months to pay bills, make rent, afford food and avoid eviction. It could also reduce Americans' overall incomes to below pre-pandemic levels by year's end, thereby reducing spending and slowing economic growth. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear his belief that unless the government supplied additional support, the recovery was at risk of derailing.

"Given what looks to be a growing probability of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, we now attach a 50% probability of a recession over the next 12 months,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax advisor firm RSM.

If a large stimulus is adopted early next year, the likelihood of a downturn would fall, Brusuelas added.

Oxford Economics projects that without further federal aid, the economy will eke out just a 1% annual growth rate in the current quarter, down sharply from its previous...

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