Wall Street poised for partial rebound on Tuesday

Wall Street poised for partial rebound on Tuesday

Proactive Investors

Published

As US president Donald Trump contemplates having his “You’re fired!” catchphrase fired back at him, US stocks look set to claw back some of yesterday’s losses. The three major indices had a negative session for the first time this year yesterday and two of them look set to rebound this morning. The odd one out is the Nasdaq Composite, which is expected to slide 88 points to 12,948. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is tipped to rise 56 points to 31,064 and the S&P 500 is expected to harden 9 points to 3,808. “US stocks are steadying following yesterday’s decline as investors remain optimistic that Biden will unveil a multi-trillion fiscal stimulus plan on Thursday, the Fed is still far away from tightening, and that vaccine rollouts have the world nearing the other side of COVID,” said OANDA’s Edward Moya. “Yesterday, Fed’s Bostic noted that a rate hike might be more in play in the second half of 2022, much sooner than Fed’s consensus view of raising at the end of 2023. If inflation rises too fast that could pose a problem, but we are still nowhere near that and tomorrow’s CPI [consumer prices] data should ease concerns. Vaccine rollouts have been messy, but as more vaccines get regional approval, risk appetite is thriving as we get closer to the other side of COVID,” he added. The prospect of Trump being impeached for the second time and the reaction of his supports is somewhat dampening the mood, as is the NFIB index of small business sentiment, which dived in December in the wake of Trump’s electoral defeat. The index fell to 95.9 from 101.4 in November, hitting the lowest reading since May. Economists were well off the mark with the consensus forecast of 100.3. “The plunge in the NFIB index in the spring was due to the initial Covid shock, but the December index also likely has been pushed down by the defeat of President Trump; indeed, that might be the key factor behind the fall. NFIB members were thrilled by Mr Trump’s victory in 2016, and the headline index jumped by 10.9 points in November and December. The drop in the past two months is 8.1 points, so it’s not hard to regard it as the removal of much, though not all, of the Trump premium,” said Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The details make for grim reading, with sharp falls in the volatile expectations components - economy, sales, and earnings - accompanied by declines in all the key labour market numbers and four-point drop in capex [capital expenditure] plans, to just 22. The pandemic low was 18 in April, and the pre-Covid trend was about 29,” he continued. “The election of President Trump didn’t trigger a jump in capex plans, so this is not just the impact of his defeat in November; it’s more likely to be a Covid hit. The services economy cannot recover until the pandemic is over,” Shepherdson said. Later today in the US, we will have the JOLTS job openings report for November, with the figure expected to dip to 6.5mln from 6.625mln previously. Four things to watch for on Tuesday: Few companies are reporting earnings figures on Tuesday, although housebuilder KB Home (NYSE:KBH) may interest some with its fourth quarter numbers Also in focus will be Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) after the retail giant said on Monday afternoon that it will work with Ribbit Capital to develop a new fintech startup Investors may also be interested in oil prices, which have rebounded recently on the back of predictions that US stockpiles may be on the decline, pushing up demand Bitcoin will also remain in the spotlight following its recent tumble, with hopes that signs of economic stimulus could send investors back into riskier assets

Full Article