How many humans needed to start a colony on Mars? 110, a new study finds

How many humans needed to start a colony on Mars? 110, a new study finds

National Post

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In the 2015 science fiction movie ‘The Martian,’ Matt Damon’s character Mark Watney was stranded on Mars after a mission went wrong. Against all odds, he managed to survive on the Red Planet for over a year-and-a-half, before he was rescued and returned to Earth.

However, had Watney had the help of 109 others during his stay, he could have set up a permanent home, a new scientific study has concluded.

The study, written by Jean-Marc Salotti from the Bordeaux Institut National Polytechnique, calculated that a mere 110 people could be enough to create the tools and supplies needed to found a civilization on Mars.

Salotti calculated the number by using a mathematical model to determine ‘the feasibility of survival on another planet.’

“If this relatively low number is confirmed, survival on another planet might be easier than expected, provided that the organization of the settlers is appropriate,” he wrote in his paper, published on the science research website, Nature.

His model, Salotti explained, depended on a number of factors. Assuming that the number of resources brought from Earth would be limited, he stated that survival on Mars would primarily rely on two variables: “available local resources,” such as gas, liquid, or a mineral found within the planet, and the settlers’ “production capacity.”

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In order for settlers to survive, their capacity to work must be more than the amount of time required to build tools, he wrote. Their survival also depends on organization within the group, and the settlers’ capacity to share. This sharing capacity would, in turn, help the settlers become more efficient and more able to specialize the work.

He also noted that even though there may be enough people who could work together to survive on Mars, the “small society” still comes with its risks.

“Infertility, inbreeding, sudden deaths, accidents or random events,” were listed as examples, with Salotti adding that fights between individuals and loss of efficiency due to “inappropriate organization” could also factor into the collapse of the group.

“This is especially true at the beginning of the settlement, as any accident could dramatically reduce the production capacity,” he wrote. “In order to mitigate the risks, it will therefore be important to start with large amounts of resources and spare parts.”

Ultimately, the calculation remains hypothetical, but it still marks the “first quantitative assessment of the minimum number of individuals for survival based on engineering constraints,” Salotti wrote. His work suggests, he says, that human habitation of Mars may be easier than previously thought.

The findings come after the U.S. tech billionaire Elon Musk announced that he would be ramping up investments in his SpaceX programme, in the hope of some day starting a human colony on Mars.

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