Can Late-Arriving Oscar Contenders Still Break Through – With Voters and Audiences?
With the last wave of Oscar contenders opening in coming weeks ahead of the Academy’s new Feb. 28 eligibility deadline, studios are contending with special challenges in building momentum since traditional theatrical releases are still mostly sidelined due to the pandemic.
This weekend, Warner Bros.’ “Judas and the Black Messiah” and A24’s “Minari” will be the first of a series of Oscar hopefuls trying to gain mainstream buzz ahead — with more to come through the end of the month. But building on box office performance as studios have done in the past just isn’t an option in 2021 — nor is it really possible to capitalize on awards attention to boost ticket sales when most U.S. theaters remain shut down.
“The mainstream Oscar buzz isn’t built in at the time of release this time around,” one indie distributor said. “Usually by this point, we know how much of a hit an Oscar nominee has been, and it’s just a matter of seeing how much farther it can be pushed. We’re not really going to know whether some of these films were a win for their studios until the early summer just because of how the whole calendar has been shaken up.”
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George MacKay as Schofield in “1917,” from Oscar-winning filmmaker Sam Mendes. (Universal; Getty Images)
It used to be that awards contenders opening late in the awards calendar would start with a New York/Los Angeles qualifying release in late December before going wide in mid-January to take advantage of Golden Globe wins and/or the mid-January Oscar nominations that can draw in curious moviegoers. Universal’s “1917,” which won the top prize at the Globes last year prior to its wide release, was able to capitalize on this strategy with a $159.2 million domestic box office total.
But that approach isn’t possible in 2021. With Oscar nominations not being announced until March 15, the likely metric of success for these films will be how much revenue they gain in PVOD sales and streamer subscriptions instead of box office sales; and while the financial outlook for most films can be mapped out after a couple weeks in theaters, these films will look to play the long game. The best case scenario will likely be a steady increase of audience interest at drive-ins and at home, building attention among Oscar voters that will hopefully lead to a Best Picture Oscar nomination in mid-March, which, in turn, will drive even more audience interest.
“Judas and the Black Messiah,” as part of Warner Bros.’ year-long strategy, will be available at no extra charge on HBO Max at the same time it releases theatrically this Friday. A24 will hold virtual screenings of “Minari” over the next two weeks before releasing the film as a premium video on-demand title on Feb. 26.
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Other upcoming contenders are planning similar strategies. Searchlight’s “Nomadland,” long considered to be the Oscar front runner thanks to its domination of critics awards so far, will be released day-and-date in theaters and on Hulu on Feb. 19, while Paramount’s “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” will debut exclusively on Hulu on February 26. The film with a release strategy closest to a normal one for an awards contender is Sony Pictures Classics’ “The Father,” which will be released on February 26 at drive-ins in New York and Los Angeles before expanding nationwide over the coming weeks ahead of a PVOD release on March 26.uzz they build over the next three to four weeks could go a long way in determining their Oscar fortunes.
At least for “Nomadland,” building Oscar buzz isn’t a concern. As TheWrap’s awards editor Steve Pond has written, the Chloé Zhao drama has been the one surefire contender in this year’s Oscar race at a time when awards campaigners for other films have been forced to get creative to earn awards consideration. But other February releases may face challenges.
“Judas and the Black Messiah,” in particular, has been getting attention thanks to rave reviews at its virtual Sundance premiere last week. And while the only Globe and SAG Award nomination for the film came from Daniel Kaluuya for his performance as Fred Hampton, that performance is already rocketing to the top of the Best Supporting Actor race, which could build the film’s can’t-miss status. “Minari,” “Holiday” and “The Father” will also hope that performances from the likes of Steven Yeun, Andra Day and Anthony Hopkins will do the same.
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