India: Deadlocked Talks In Nagaland – Analysis

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 00:20:55 +0000
World

By Afsara Shaheen

On January 31, 2025, the Isak-Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim *(NSCN-IM)* asserted that, if Indians respect Naga history, the Nagas would reciprocate tenfold. Speaking at the NSCN-IM's 46th Raising Day celebrations, 'vice chairman' Tongmeth Wangnao highlighted two key official recognitions of Naga sovereignty - first in 2002 at an Amsterdam meeting and later in the 2015 Framework Agreement, signed at New Delhi, with the Union Government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Wangnao criticized Indian agencies for undermining the Naga political movement, despite 27 years of negotiations. He claimed that, for the past more than 27 years, "we have been talking with the government of India on the strength of truth behind the Naga political movement. However, it is very unfortunate that the government agencies have indulged themselves in unethical conduct to create many enemies behind the Naga political talks led by NSCN-IM." The fate of the ongoing Naga political talks, he concluded, rests in God's hands.

On January 19, 2025, NSCN-IM accused the Government of India (GoI) of employing deceitful tactics in handling the Indo-Naga political dialogue, which began in 1997. An NSCN-IM statement claimed that the government's "purposeful falsehood" aimed to mislead the global community about the Naga political issue and identity. The outfit criticized India's alleged repressive and divisive policies, which it said have persisted for over seven decades. The NSCN-IM further highlighted India's use of the term "terrorist outfit" to describe the organization, despite a 2002 Memorandum of Understanding in Milan, Italy, that lifted the ban under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA). It also condemned the prolonged imprisonment of its 'kilonser' (foreign minister) Alemla Jamir, labelling it an act of intimidation against the Nagas. The outfit reiterated its stance against submission, asserting that such tactics undermine the spirit of justice and mutual respect.

On November 8, 2024, the NSCN-IM sought a third-party intervention to address the deadlock over the Naga political issue and issued an ultimatum to the Union Government, threatening to "resume the violent armed resistance against India" if the Centre did not "honour" the 2015 Framework Agreement signed by the two parties to resolve the Naga political problem. The outfit's 'general secretary' Thuingaleng Muivah claimed the Centre was deliberately refusing to honour the Framework Agreement's key provisions, particularly the recognition of the Naga national flag and constitution. Muivah stated that the Centre's failure to abide by the Framework Agreement could result in resurgence of a renewed violent conflict. Claiming that the Centre has betrayed the essence of the agreement by refusing to formally acknowledge the Naga flag and constitution, Muivah asserted that these were non-negotiable and should be included in any future political settlement, and that failure to respect these commitments would result in the collapse of the peace process.

Nagaland has not recorded any insurgency-related fatality in 2025 so far. In 2024, the recorded three such fatalities (one civilian and two militants) in three incidents. The incidents include:

June 7: A businessman from Assam, Abdul Kayum Talukdar, was shot dead by suspected militants in the New Market area of Dimapur District, Nagaland.

March 4: A cadre of the Ang Mai faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Khaplang (*NSCN-K*) was killed, while another was arrested, following an encounter with the Assam Rifles in the Mon District of Nagaland.

February 21: NSCN-IM 'deputy leader', Kilonser Khampei Opeiham Konyak, was shot dead by a group of six unidentified miscreants, at his residence at Tizit in the Mon District of Nagaland.

In 2023, Nagaland recorded three fatalities (all militants), all in inter/intra-factional clashes. No fatality was recorded in Nagaland in 2022, while there were four insurgency-linked fatalities (three civilians and one terrorist) in 2021. Since March 6, 2000, when South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) started compiling data, Nagaland has recorded a total of 833 fatalities: 192 civilians, 22 Security Force (SF) personnel, 605 terrorists and 14 in the not-specified (NS) category.

Not surprisingly, on September 26, 2024, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) issued a notification under Section 3 of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA), extending the purview of the Act has for a further six months in several regions of Nagaland. UMHA stated that the Central Government, after reviewing the security landscape, has re-declared these regions as "disturbed" to facilitate the operations of the Armed Forces. The extension applies to eight Districts in Nagaland, as well as specific areas falling under designated Police jurisdictions. The Districts in Nagaland include Dimapur, Niuland, Chumoukedima, Mon, Kiphire, Noklak, Phek, and Peren. Specific Police station areas within Kohima, Mokokchung, Longleng, Wokha, and Zunheboto Districts have also been designated as "disturbed". This includes Kohima District's Khuzama, Kohima North, Kohima South, Zubza, and Kezocha Police Stations, along with others in neighbouring Districts.

The security situation in the state has improved gradually over the years, as overall fatalities, which remained in three digits between 1993 and 2000, dropped to two digits between 2001 and 2015, with the exceptions of 2007 and 2008, when they again touched three digits. However, since 2016, after the signing of the Framework Agreement on August 5, 2015, between the Government of India (GoI) and NSCN-IM, the security situation in the state has registered dramatic improvement, and fatalities have since remained in single digits.

There has been one arrest in 2025, so far (data till February 9, 2025), while there were 19 arrests [13 NSCN-K, three NSCN-IM and one each of United Liberation Front of Assam - Independent *(ULFA-I),* Nikki Sumi-led faction of NSCN (NSCN-K-NS) and Yung Yang faction of the NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K-YA)] in 2024 in 11 separate incidents. These were in addition to 36 arrests in 17 incidents in 2023: 19 NSCN-IM, 10 NSCN-K-NS, three NSCN-K-YA, two NSCN-K and one each of the Khango Konyak led faction of NSCN-K (NSCN-K2) and NSCN-Reformation (NSCN-R). There were three arrests [two NSCN-Unification (NSCN-U), and one NSCN-K2-Issac] in two separate incidents in 2022.

Nagaland recorded five surrenders in 2024 [four Naga National Council-Non Accordist (NNC-NA) and one NSCN-K]. In 2023, there were 14 surrenders in five separate incidents [Kamatpur Liberation Organisation (KLO), nine; NSCN-K, three and NSCN-U, two].

Interestingly, while signing the Framework Agreement and on several occasions thereafter, GoI has reiterated that the Naga issue would be resolved 'soon'.

Significantly on February 7, 2025, 21 Members of Parliament (MP) from various political parties urged Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah to provide a detailed update in Parliament on the stalled Naga peace process and appoint a full-time interlocutor to revive negotiations. In a joint letter addressed to Shah, the MPs called for immediate government action, warning that the stagnation in talks could "threaten to erode nearly three decades of painstaking progress." The letter expressed concerns over the lack of transparency and momentum in the peace process.

Earlier, on February 20, 2023, Amit Shah had reiterated, "Our aim is to make peace talks successful and solve Naga political problem quickly." The talks, nevertheless, drag on as, on the one hand, the NSCN-IM remains fixed on its demand for a separate flag and constitution and, on the other, the Union Government remains non-committal on these two demands.

Nevertheless, in pursuit of the goal of long-lasting peace in the areas impacted by the Naga insurgency, GoI has extended ceasefire agreements with a number of Naga insurgent groups, in continuance with the peace talks. For instance, on September 8, 2024, in a significant move aimed at fostering peace and stability in Nagaland, the Government of India (GoI) and the NSCN-K-NS mutually agreed to extend the ceasefire agreement for another year.

Even though Nagaland's security situation has improved, a number of issues persist. The GoI has consistently reaffirmed its commitment to resolving the Naga issue since the signing of the Framework Agreement in 2015. However, despite repeated assurances that a solution would be reached "soon," the issue remains unresolved. This prolonged delay raises concerns about the sincerity of political commitments, the complexities of negotiations, and the challenges posed by differing perspectives among stakeholders.

A critical analysis of the situation highlights several key factors. First, while the Framework Agreement marked a significant step towards peace, the lack of transparency regarding its contents has led to speculation and mistrust among various Naga factions and the broader public. The absence of a clearly defined roadmap has fuelled uncertainty and scepticism. Second, internal divisions within Naga political groups, particularly between NSCN-IM and other Naga factions, have further complicated the peace process. Divergent demands, especially regarding a separate Naga constitution and flag, have stalled negotiations.

In sum, while the Framework Agreement was a historic step, the lack of implementation underscores the difficulties of resolving long-standing ethnic and political conflicts. Moving forward, genuine dialogue, mutual trust, and flexibility on both sides will be crucial to achieving a lasting and inclusive settlement that respects Naga aspirations, while maintaining India's territorial integrity. Without a sincere and time-bound resolution, the risk of renewed instability remains a persistent concern.

· Afsara Shaheen
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management