Pakistan: Hostage Nation – Analysis

Tue, 18 Mar 2025 00:24:17 +0000
World

By Ajit Kumar Singh

"The bickering nation". This one sentence aptly describes the current state of Pakistan, where the two major terrorist/insurgent formations - the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (*TTP*), an umbrella group of 56 terrorist outfits, and the Baloch insurgents - have created havoc. A third terrorist group - the Islamic State - is also on a rampage. Meanwhile, the political landscape is turbulent, while the economy is in complete disarray.

Indeed, within a span of a week, between March 10 and March 16, 2025, Pakistan recoded at least 38 terrorist attacks, resulting in 104 confirmed deaths [including 14 civilians, 45 Security Force (SF) personnel and 45 terrorists). Unconfirmed reports, however, put the death toll to 406.

In the deadliest attack during this period, one that was brazenly audacious even by the Pakistani standards, on March 11, militants hijacked a train, the Jaffar Express, with over 400 passengers-onboard, after they blew up the railway track between Quetta, Balochistan, and Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which took responsibility for the attack at Dhadar in the Bolan area of Balochistan, according to varying media reports, freed around 80 passengers, mostly women and children, but held hundreds of other passengers, most of them Pakistani Army personnel, hostage. They were demanding that authorities release jailed militants.

On March 12 the Pakistan Army launched an operation to end the crisis. On March 14, the Army declared that the operation had ended with the killing of all 33 militants involved in the attack. It further disclosed that 26 hostages, including 18 SF personnel, three railway officials and five civilians, were killed by the terrorists before the start of the Army operation. During the operation, apart from 33 terrorists, five Frontier Corps (FC) soldiers were also killed. The Army stated that a total of 354 hostages were rescued, including 37 injured passengers. The BLA, on the other hand, claimed that its fighters inflicted a "devastating and unforgettable defeat" on the Pakistani military as it has executed all 214 Pakistani military hostages taken during the seizure of the train.

Some of the other major attacks (involving three or more fatalities) during this week included:

March 10: Seven FC soldiers were killed when Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) targeted their vehicle with improvised explosive device (IED) in the Mehnaz area of Buleda tehsil (revenue unit) in the Kech District of Balochistan. While claiming responsibility for the attack, the BLF reiterated its determination to continue targeting Pakistani SFs and state-backed projects, declaring, "We reaffirm our commitment to continue our struggle until Balochistan's liberation is achieved."

March 10: Three non-local people from Sindh were shot dead when unidentified assailants opened fire at a barbershop in Katagari area of Panjgur District in Balochistan. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, so far.

March 14: SFs thwarted a terrorist attack on a check post and killed 10 militants, following a suicide attack in the Jandola area of South Waziristan District in KP.

March 16: Three FC personnel were among five persons killed when a vehicle-borne BLA suicide bomber targeted an FC convoy in the Rakshani Mill area of the Regional Corporate Development N-40 Highway in the Nushki District of Balochistan. However, the BLA claimed, "Immediately after the attack, the Fateh Squad of the BLA advanced and completely surrounded another bus, systematically eliminating all military personnel on board, bringing the total number of enemy casualties to 90."

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Pakistan has already recorded at least 849 fatalities (120 civilians, 277 SF personnel and 452 terrorists) in 2025 (data till March 16). During the corresponding period of 2024, 369 persons (120 civilians, 115 SF personnel, 130 terrorists and four Not Specified, NS) were killed. Through 2024, there was a total of 2,236 fatalities (582 civilians, 754 SF personnel, 896 terrorists, four Not Specified). Significantly, terrorism-related fatalities are again surging in Pakistan since 2020, with 365 in 2019; 506 in 2020; 664 in 2021; 971 in 2022; and 1,513 in 2023.

Though violence has been reported from across Pakistan, KP and Balochistan accounted for the maximum number of fatalities. According to SATP data, of the 849 fatalities recorded in 2025, 504 were reported from KP, followed by 336 in Balochistan, six in Sindh and three in Punjab. In 2024, KP recorded 1,363 fatalities, followed by Balochistan, 774; Punjab, 59; Sindh, 38; and the Islamabad Capital Territory and Gilgit-Baltistan, one each.

The surge coincides with the ascendency of the Afghan Taliban since the February 29, 2020, Doha deal, and the subsequent capture of power in Kabul.

Significantly, the return of Afghan Taliban has helped TTP regroup and has strengthened the outfit, which had been on a decline due to successive military operations that followed the June 8, 2014, attack on the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, Sindh. With violence on a rise in KP, SFs had to divide their focus between Balochistan and KP, creating opportunities for the Baloch insurgents to intensify their operations as well.

Reports indicate that efforts were also made to form some sort of 'working arrangement' between TTP and the Baloch separatists. Speaking during the United Nations Security Council briefing on Afghanistan in New York on March 10, 2025, Pakistan's Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Munir Akram claimed that TTP was collaborating with other terrorist groups present in Afghanistan, including BLA and the Majeed Brigade, the BLA's 'special forces unit', adding that the latter sought to destabilise Pakistan's ties with China. Earlier, on June 26, 2024, the Balochistan government claimed that TTP and BLA were trying to establish a joint base for terrorist operations in Balochistan, but the attempt was foiled. During a press conference, Zia Lango, Balochistan Home Minister, observed that Nasrullah alias Maulvi Mansoor and 'Commander' Idris alias Irshad, who had come to Balochistan to plan terrorist acts in collaboration with BLA, had been arrested.

Former Balochistan Chief Minister and President of the Balochistan National Party, Akhtar Mengal, wrote on X on March 12, 2025,

There is not a single inch of Balochistan left where the government can claim authority. They have lost this war-completely and irreversibly. It is over. We warned them, just as those before us warned them. But instead of listening, they mocked us. They dismissed our words as empty threats, while they fueled a system of oppression, looting, and bloodshed. Every single government-without exception-has played its role in the systematic genocide of the Baloch people. This is the one issue where every institution, every administration, every so-called leader has always stood united-against us. And rather than acknowledge their crimes, they have done what they do best: shift the blame onto others. But today, I want to make something very clear. To the federal government, to the political parties, to the judiciary, to the establishment-you have brought Balochistan to the brink of destruction with your own hands. But this time, it is beyond our control. And it is beyond yours as well.

Further, on March 14, National Party lawmaker, Phullain Baloch, claimed that the BLA is so heavily stocked with potential suicide attackers that it has suspended further recruitment. He warned that the security situation in Balochistan has deteriorated to the point where elected representatives can no longer visit their constituencies safely. He asserted that "the voices of Balochistan's representatives are not heard," and lamented that without genuine electoral and governance reforms, Balochistan's ongoing conflict will only intensify.

Meanwhile, the Islamic State continues to operate in Pakistan as well. The Islamic State-Khorasan Province/Islamic State-Pakistan Province (IS-KP/IS-PP) claimed 29 attacks in the country in 2024, in which 58 persons, including SF personnel, were killed and 105 were injured. IS-KP/IS-PP have already claimed three attacks in 2025, in which one person has been killed and two injured.

Meanwhile, the country's socio-economic condition remains dire. According to the World Bank's latest updates,

Over one-third of school-age children across Pakistan were found to be out of school; nearly two-thirds of those in school in Financial Year (FY) 24 were learning deprived; and alarmingly high rates of stunting - 40 percent in FY23 - persist. Critical constraints, including recurrent fiscal and current account deficits, protectionist trade policies, unproductive agriculture, a difficult business environment, a heavy state presence in the economy, and a financially unsustainable energy sector, have remained largely unaddressed, leading to slow and volatile growth… The estimated lower-middle income poverty rate is 40.5 percent (USD 3.65/day 2017 PPP) for FY24 with an additional 2.6 million Pakistanis falling below the poverty line from the year before.

And further,

Downside risks to the outlook remain high, with the recovery expected to continue but predicated on the new IMF-EFF [International Monetary Fund/Extended Fund Facility] program remaining on track and on additional external financing inflows. Continued fiscal restraint will dampen aggregate demand, income, employment, and poverty alleviation. Heavy banking sector exposure to the sovereign, domestic policy uncertainty, federal-provincial government political misalignments and geopolitical instability pose significant risks.

Political volatility continues as well, with the puppet civilian government, which came to power after heavily rigged elections and direct involvement of the Military Establishment in forming post-elections alliances. Meanwhile, the 'people's choice', Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf leader Imran Khan continues to languish in jail.

Summing up the current situation in a tweet on January 9, 2025, Imran Khan stated, "There is a plan to impose a ten-year dictatorship in Pakistan, of which two years have already passed. Judges or police officers who become a party to oppression are rewarded with promotions here… Economic prosperity requires investment, which is impossible without institutions adhering to their boundaries and responsibilities as defined by the Constitution. Surging terrorism in the country is causing irreparable damage to the confidence of the investors."

In an apparent reference to the military, Khan added, "Tragically, those responsible for countering terrorism are using all their resources and energy to corner our party."

Pakistan is hostage, not only to multiple terrorist groups, but to the Military Establishment as well, which, unhinged by its weakening grip over the public, has intensified political manipulation and repression. Under the prevailing circumstances, the country can only look forward to a future in chaos.

· Ajit Kumar Singh
Senior Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management