Gary Hershorn/Corbis via Getty Images Goldman Sachs now thinks second-quarter GDP will decline 39%, and increased its peak unemployment rate estimate to 25% from 15%, according to a note published Tuesday evening.
Following the first quarter GDP and April unemployment data release, Goldman now estimates that consumer services spending fell 20% from pre-virus levels in April, adding that alternative data suggests a collapse in transportation, hotel, and entertainment spending.
The bank said that reopening the economy presents risks besides the potential for COVID-19 to reemerge and spread, including the risk that "prolonged economic weakness could cause severe scarring effects such as permanent layoffs and business closures that delay the recovery."