Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year tend to be highly correlated with the November results in incumbent contests.
And according to CNN, that means incumbent candidate President Donald J.
Trump is in a lot of trouble.
A new Monmouth University poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 53% to 41% lead over Trump.
The average live interview poll conducted over the last month also has Biden ahead by a similar 11-point margin.
Even more troublesome for the president?
No one in an incumbent presidential election has been polling above 50% at this point like Biden and gone on to lose.
There's still time for volatility.
The polls will probably bounce around during the convention period.
Trump could close the gap and win.
But make no mistake: An incumbent trailing by double-digits in early July with an opponent over 50% is a heavy underdog for reelection.
