Original-Research: INDUS Holding AG (von NuWays AG)
Original-Research: INDUS Holding AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to INDUS Holding AG
Company Name: INDUS Holding AG
ISIN: DE0006200108
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 15.05.2024
Target price: EUR 36.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Mixed Q1 results // strong FCF generation; chg. est.
Topic: INDUS reported a mixed Q1 with sales below but EBIT above estimates
as well as strong free cashflow supported by a lower seasonal working
capital increase.
Q1 sales decreased by 9% yoy to € 410m (eNuW: € 434m) due to customers’
current reluctance to buy and spend as a result of the weak German economy.
Q1 EBIT was down 40% yoy to € 26.7m (eNuW: € 25.3m), implying a margin of
6.5% (-3.4pp) driven by neg. op. leverage as well as pressure from
significantly higher wages and salaries. Mind you Q1 FY23 was an
exceptionally strong quarter, which also benefited from decreased material
costs within the Materials segment. Positive, while sales in the
Infrastructure segment declined 6.8% yoy to € 132m, EBIT rose to € 11.4m
(Q1 FY23: € 10.7m) supported by internal efficiency gains.
Strong cash generation: Free cashflow in the first quarter came in at €
6.1m (Q1 FY23: € 7.5) driven by a lower seasonal working capital increase
due to the stabilization of supply chains and lower procurement prices.
Mind you, last years’ FCF includes a € 14.4m one-time cash inflow from a
property sale.
FY guidance confirmed. Management confirmed its FY24e guidance of €
1.85-1.95m (eNuW: € 1.85m) revenue and € 145-165m EBIT (eNuW: € 157m),
despite the challenging start into the year, which was largely anticipated
by the market. In our view, the guidance seems plausible, however we expect
sales to come in at the lower end of the guidance range due to an
increasing pressure on selling prices in the Materials segment. In
addition, the outlook for the construction sector remains cautious, as the
German construction industry federation (HDB) expects a 3.5% decline in
real-term sales in 2024.
INDUS remains an attractive investment case and dividend-stock for the
mid-term. Mind you, management proposed a dividend of € 1.20 per share (AGM
on 22 May), making INDUS an attractive dividend stock with a yield of 4.4%
based on yesterday’s closing price. Due to the divestment of the lossmaking
automotive business in FY23 and an ongoing solid operating business, we
expect a further dividend rise for the current fiscal year (eNuW: € 1.40).
INDUS remains a BUY with an unchanged € 36 PT based on FCFY 2024e as (1)
shares seem attractively valued trading at 4.7x EV/EBITDA 2024e, which is
23% below the 10-year historical average, (2) INDUS is generating
double-digit ROCEs and (3) has a strong future dividend yield potential.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29747.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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