Retail trade group sees holiday sales gain of 8.5% to 10.5%

NEW YORK (AP) —

The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, expects that holiday sales gain could shatter last year's record-breaking season even as snarled global supply chains slow the flow of goods and result in higher prices for a broad range of items.

The trade group said Wednesday that it predicts that sales for the November and December period will grow between 8.5% and 10.5% to $843.4 billion and $859 billion. Holiday sales increased 8.2% in 2020 compared with the previous year.

The group expects that online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, will increase between 11% and 15% to a total of between $218.3 billion and $226.2 billion driven by online purchases

The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants billion. Holiday sales have averaged gains of 4.4 % over the past five years.

“There is considerable momentum heading into the holiday shopping season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Consumers are in a very favorable position going into the last few months of the year as income is rising and household balance sheets have never been stronger."