Yet another 4-decade inflation high is expected for February

WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumer inflation in the United States likely set another 40-year high in February — and it won't even reflect the oil and gas spikes of the past week, which will likely catapult prices even higher in coming months.

Energy prices, which soared after Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, jumped again this week after President Joe Biden said the United States would bar oil imports from Russia.

A report Thursday from the government is expected to show that consumer inflation leapt 7.9% in February compared with 12 months earlier, according to data provider FactSet. That would be the biggest such increase since January 1982. Analysts have also estimated that prices rose 0.7% from January to February.

For most Americans, inflation is running far ahead of the pay raises that many have received in the past year, making it harder for them to afford necessities like food, gas and rent. As a consequence, inflation has become the top political threat to Biden and congressional Democrats as the midterm elections draw closer. Small business people now say in surveys that it's their primary economic concern, too.

Seeking to stem the inflation surge, the Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates several times this year beginning with a modest hike next week. The Fed faces a delicate challenge, though: If it tightens credit too aggressively this year, it risks undercutting the economy and perhaps triggering a recession.

For now, solid consumer spending, spurred in part by a further reopening of the economy as omicron fades, on top of higher wages and pricier gas, will likely send inflation higher for months. Gas prices spiked to $4.25 Wednesday, up about 55 cents a gallon just since the end of February.

Oil prices did fall back Wednesday on reports that the United Arab Emirates will urge fellow OPEC...