A Fed still wary of inflation is set to raise rates to a 22-year peak. Will it be the last hike?

WASHINGTON (AP) — Even after inflation has steadily eased this year, the Federal Reserve's policymakers still think prices are rising too fast and are almost certain to lift their key interest rate by a quarter-point on Wednesday.

A rate increase, the 11th in 17 months, would raise the Fed's short-term rate to roughly 5.3%, the highest level since 2001. As with its previous rate hikes, Wednesday's increase would likely further elevate the costs of mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and business borrowing.

Another hike is widely expected despite a run of encouraging news that has sent stock prices steadily higher, boosted consumer confidence and brightened hopes that the Fed can pull off a difficult “soft landing,” in which inflation would continue to slow toward the Fed’s 2% target without sending the economy tumbling into a recession.

Inflation amounted to just 3% in June compared with a year earlier, down drastically from a peak of 9.1% in June of last year. Consumers are still spending more — crowding airplanes, traveling overseas and flocking to concerts and movie theaters. Businesses keep hiring, and the unemployment rate has stayed near half-century lows.

Yet the Fed's expected rate hike Wednesday, after it chose to skip a rate increase last month, points to the dangers that remain. Underlying inflation is still well above the Fed's target. A price gauge that excludes volatile food and energy costs, known as “core” inflation, rose 4.8% in June compared with 12 months earlier. As long as such measures stay elevated, Fed officials will feel compelled to keep rates high — and possibly raise them further.

In June, the policymakers signaled that they expected to impose two more increases, including Wednesday's expected hike. Some economists have said they worry that too many hikes could trigger a painful...