Retail trade group: holiday sales expected to slow to 3% to 4%, compared with 5.4% growth a year ago

The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, expects holiday sales growth will ease to a range of 3% to 4%, compared with 5.4% growth a year ago. Sales in November and December should increase to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion. The pace is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to the pre-pandemic 2019. Americans ramped up spending during the pandemic, which accounted for some outsized sales numbers. For the holiday 2021 season, sales for the two-month period surged 12.7%. The forecast, released Thursday, comes as shoppers keep spending, powered by sturdy hiring, low unemployment and healthy household finances. But shoppers face lots of headwinds.