AP Explains: Why India cases are rising to multiple peaks

NEW DELHI (AP) — In just three weeks, India went from the world’s sixth to the third-worst hit country by the coronavirus pandemic, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University. India's fragile health system was bolstered during a stringent monthslong lockdown but could still be overwhelmed by an exponential rise in infections.

Here is where India stands in its battle against the virus:

STEADY CLIMB, MULTIPLE PEAKS

India has tallied 793,802 infections and more than 21,600 deaths, with cases doubling every three weeks. It's testing more than 250,000 samples daily after months of sluggishness, but experts say this is insufficient for a country of nearly 1.4 billion people.

“This whole thing about the ‘peak’ is a false bogey because we won’t have one peak in India, but a series of peaks,” said Dr. Anant Bhan, a bioethics and global health researcher. He pointed out that the capital of New Delhi and India's financial capital, Mumbai, had already seen surges, while infections had now begun spreading to smaller cities as governments eased restrictions. The actual toll would be unknown, he said, unless India made testing more accessible.

DUBIOUS DATA

The Health Ministry said Thursday that India was doing “relatively well” managing COVID-19, pointing to 13 deaths per 1 million people, compared to about 400 in the United States and 320 in Brazil. But knowing the actual toll in India is “absolutely impossible” because there is no reporting mechanism in most places for any kind of death, said Dr. Jayaprakash Muliyil, an epidemiologist at the Christian Medical College in Vellore who has been advising the government.

Official data shows 43% of the people who have died from the coronavirus were between the ages of 30 and 60, but research globally...