Original-Research: Rosenbauer International AG (von NuWays AG)

Original-Research: Rosenbauer International AG - from NuWays AG

Classification of NuWays AG to Rosenbauer International AG

Company Name: Rosenbauer International AG
ISIN: AT0000922554

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 21.05.2024
Target price: EUR 50.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr

Solid start into the year // record order backlog; chg. est.

Topic: Rosenbauer released solid Q1 figures with sales above but EBIT below
our estimates. The demand for firefighting vehicles is unbroken supported
by several structural trends, leading to a strong order intake and a new
record high in order backlog.

Q1 sales grew by 17.7% yoy to € 226m (eNuW: € 215m) thanks to the company’s
strong order backlog of € 1.79bn at the end of FY23 and an average price
increase of 8% yoy per fire truck delivered in Q1. On a regional level,
growth in the Europe (+67% yoy to € 106m) and the Americas area (+6.0% yoy
to € 80m) compensated for a weaker Asia-Pacific (-51% yoy to € 12.4m) and
Middle East & Africa area (-9.0% yoy to € 17.1m).

EBIT improved by € 5.2m yoy to € 0.3m (eNuW: € 4.4m) backed by further
stabilization of supply chains but also substantial price increases. The
reported EBIT includes a negative one-off effect of € 2.3m due to the
departure of a member of the Executive Board and the realization of a new
banking agreement. The fact that EBIT in the first quarter was positive for
the first time in two years, despite negative one-offs, underpins the
successful operational turnaround of the company.

Unbroken strong demand. Q1 order intake stood at € 362m (+24% yoy),
implying a book-to-bill ratio of 1.6x. Coupled with the strong demand
during the past quarters and supply chain issues, the group’s order backlog
grew again to a new record high of € 1.94bn (+20% yoy). Rosenbauer intends
to reduce the book-to-bill ratio to a level of 1x to decrease lead times
and with that the implied risk in the order book of increases on the cost
side like in FY21 & FY22.

FY guidance reiterated. For FY24e, management expects sales of € 1.2bn (+
12.7% yoy) and an EBIT margin of 5%. While we are slightly more cautious
(eNuW: Sales € 1.18bn, EBIT margin 4.7%), we expect further sequential
improvements throughout FY24e after the transition year FY23. FY24e should
benefit from (1) price increases which are successively reflected in sales
(2) a further improving supply chain and (3) internal efficiency measures.

As the supply chain situation further improves and with a record high in
order backlog, shares look poised for a re-rating. Reiterate BUY with an
unchanged € 50.00 PT based on DCF.

You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29823.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
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