What recent polls can tell us about the Arizona Senate race

Recent polling data in the Arizona Senate race suggests Democrat Mark Kelly has a large lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally. However, the gap might not be as big as some polls show. A recent poll from Fox News has Kelly 17 points up in the Arizona Senate race. The poll, conducted at the end of August, surveyed 772 likely voters and found a 56-39 split in favor of Kelly. However, data from OH Predictive Insights, a Phoenix-based polling firm, suggests the gap is much smaller. Data…