Virus leaves the US travel industry struggling to recover

U.S. air travel down almost 90% from a year ago. A ghostly emptiness at Hawaii's tourist hotels. Deserted Las Vegas casinos counting the days to reopening.

Few sectors of the economy have endured as much devastation from the coronavirus as the travel business. Surveying the wreckage, economists and company leaders say it will take years to regenerate the $1.1 trillion the industry produced last year, potentially leaving many airlines, hotels, rental car companies and restaurants in peril.

And as long as travel remains depressed, the economy could struggle to accelerate. About 10% of all jobs flow from the travel sector. Industry-wide unemployment now tops 50%, government reports suggest, a level that could presage bankruptcies and business closures. Spending by business and leisure travelers had provided an engine of growth that helped power the economy until the virus struck.

“While the rest of the country is moving into a recession," said Tori Emerson Barnes, an executive at the U.S. Travel Association, “the travel industry is already in a depression.”

The industry’s collapse is unrivaled in recent memory. The closest parallel, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, closed airports for four days. The industry needed roughly two years to match its previous passenger levels. The cost this time is estimated at nine times the damage from 9/11, Barnes said.

The industry was once a reliable gauge of economic health. From business people on high-priced overseas trips to tourists flying to Disney World, the industry benefited from steady spending.

Not this time. Travel might be one of the last sectors to recover.

“Usually travel would be a good leading indicator of confidence and discretionary spending,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist for Oxford Economics. “But...