Cratering economy offsets Wall St. gains in 2020 campaign

LOS ANGELES (AP) — President Donald Trump has often cited the stock market's gains as a barometer for his administration's success. And if history is a guide, Wall Street's fortunes in the next few months could signal whether America gives Trump another four years in the Oval Office.

More often than not a falling stock market has pointed to a rebuke of the previous administration at the polls.

“A market decline from July 31 through Oct. 31 has signaled the replacement of the incumbent nearly 90% of the time, failing only once since World War II,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

Since 1944, the incumbent party’s candidate has been ousted seven out of the eight times that stocks have fallen in the three months before an election. Conversely, a rising stock market over that period has seen the incumbent party keep the White House nine times out of 11.

Massive aid for the economy and the Federal Reserve's promise of nearly 0% interest rates have propelled stocks' rebound since March, when the coronavirus pandemic shut much of the economy and sparked a 30% plunge in the S&P 500. Improvements in hiring, retail sales and progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine have helped prolong the rally.

The prospect of further gains remains far from certain, however, with the U.S. still mired in recession. The economy plunged by a record-shattering 32.9% annual rate last quarter. Unemployment is in double-digits. And a recent resurgence in new coronavirus cases across much of the country threatens economic recovery as states order many businesses to close again.

Even if the market continues to climb, Wall Street's gains may not be as predictive of what happens in November.

“It really is an election that does hinge on how the economy responds to COVID-19...