Why ‘Jackass Forever’ Is the Perfect Film to Boost the COVID-Era Box Office

After two weeks of no major new releases, the box office is finally getting a little bit of new material as Paramount’s “Jackass Forever” and Lionsgate’s “Moonfall” hit theaters. Neither film will be a major success but both — especially “Jackass” — are the kind of films that are designed to find profit in this time of feast or famine for movies.

“Jackass Forever” will hit theaters three weeks after Paramount found low-budget success with its revival of “Scream,” which has grossed $62.6 million domestic and $106 million worldwide against a $24 million production budget. At a time when only films that appeal to younger moviegoers have found any box office success, “Scream” coupled that appeal with a lower production and marketing spend that allowed it to turn an easy profit.

“Jackass Forever” takes the same route with an even lower production budget of just $10 million, which should enable the Johnny Knoxville stunt-apalooza to easily recoup its investment. Paramount execs project a mid-teens opening from 3,590 theaters, while rival distributors say they wouldn’t be surprised if the film stretches into the $20 million range.

While “Jackass” largely sold itself on the sheer ludicrousness of the moronic pranks that Knoxville and his buddies inflict on each other during its 2000s heyday, the marketing for “Forever” has coupled that with a message of friendship, encouraging people to “grab all your friends” to see a group of old and new friends lovingly abuse each other for 96 minutes.

Paramount isn’t just selling nostalgia for an MTV show. It’s selling nostalgia for a night out at the movies with your mates. Somewhat ironically, the most puerile of all film franchises is embracing the call from theater execs for studios to actively sell the theatrical experience, and while bringing out the under-30 crowd alone won’t be enough to create consistent pre-pandemic level turnout, theaters need all the help they can get to avoid a 2022 that is constantly waiting for the next big superhero blockbuster to pick up business again. Smaller films, even ones like “Jackass Forever,” can help with that.

Also hitting theaters this weekend is “Moonfall,” the latest film from disaster-movie maven Roland Emmerich. The film is expected to open below “Jackass Forever” with a $10-12 million launch, but Lionsgate execs say a $10 million result would be a success.

That’s because “Moonfall,” like much of Emmerich’s work, is independently financed via deals between the director’s production company, Centropolis Entertainment, and a long list of foreign distributors and financiers, including Lionsgate and China’s Huayi Brothers. That means the threshold for profitability for Lionsgate is considerably lower as it only has to cover distribution and marketing costs, not production.

Both films arrive in theaters as the U.S. appears to be coming out of the most recent COVID-19 infection surge, with the current seven-day average down 45% from its all-time peak of 806,000 in mid-January. But that average is still higher than the peaks seen during previous surges in January and August of last year, and the average rate of deaths per day in the U.S. is close to reaching all-time highs at over 3,500 per day.

Between these statistics and the general lack of major upcoming releases for older audiences, it’s likely that the February box office will see the same significant drop in turnout compared to 2019 that was seen in January. Nor will next week’s Oscar nominations likely provide much help as some of the main contenders like “The Power of the Dog” are currently on streaming while those still in theaters, like “West Side Story,” have failed to draw older moviegoers who are expected to still stay home while COVID infection and death rates remain high.