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IFO: Germany heading for Q4 growth, but...

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IFO: Germany heading for Q4 growth, but...

IFO: Germany heading for Q4 growth, but...

Business morale in Germany rose in November.

But the influential IFO institute's latest survey also lists plenty of reasons why it shouldn't be.

David Pollard reports.

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IFO: Germany heading for Q4 growth, but...

Business confidence is better in Europe's most powerful economy ... Salaries up, services strong - and retail too, ahead of Christmas.

So far, so good from Germany's influential IFO institute survey on Monday.

But there's also the bad, according to its president, Clemens Fuest.

(SOUNDBITE) (German) IFO PRESIDENT, CLEMENS FUEST, SAYING: "Exports are weak.

Industry is still shrinking and in a recession.

Orders are weak and most companies are planning to reduce production." Business morale rose 0.3 points to 95 in November.

Enough for a 0.2 per cent rise in GDP in Q4.

After Germany narrowly skirted recession in the previous quarter, that's vital, says the IFO.

Its mighty car industry, though, is in the front line of a manufacturing recession.

VW last week joined a list of those cutting profit forecasts - amid a downturn in demand.

(SOUNDBITE) (German) IFO PRESIDENT, CLEMENS FUEST, SAYING: "It's not clear what the future of the diesel powered car looks like.

Companies know that they need more electric cars and they need new drive technology and it's a big shift.

Every tenth job in this industry in Germany is dependent on the combustion engine." Brexit is on the IFO risk list.

Global trade tensions slightly less so in the latest survey - as hopes rise for a deal between the US and China.

If with a caveat over president Donald Trump.

The problem, says Fuest, is you never know how he's going to react.

You can't, he added, count on anything.




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