Thanksgiving feast or famine? Turkey industry left to guess

For the turkey industry, this Thanksgiving is a guessing game.

Millions of Americans are expected to have scaled-down celebrations amid the pandemic, heeding official warnings against travel and large indoor gatherings. That leaves anxious turkey farmers and grocers scrambling to predict what people will want on their holiday tables.

Kroger — the nation’s largest grocery chain — said its research shows 43% of shoppers plan to celebrate Thanksgiving only with those in their immediate household. It has purchased more turkeys than usual — in all sizes — but it’s also predicting an increase in demand for alternatives, including ham, pork roast and seafood. Kroger also expects to see more demand for plant-based meats, like a vegan roast stuffed with mushrooms and squash.

Walmart says it will still carry plenty of whole turkeys, but it will also have 30% more turkey breasts in its stores to accommodate shoppers who don’t want to cook a whole bird.

It’s not always easy to pivot. Angela Wilson, the owner of Avedano’s Holly Park Market in San Francisco, ordered turkeys last year for this Thanksgiving. She can’t cancel the order, so they’re still coming in.

But Wilson said this Thanksgiving might be busier than in the past, since customers who usually go out of town will be staying home. She’s also stocking up on smaller birds like quail and game hen.

Some farmers are making tweaks based on what they think customers will be looking for. Dede Boies raises heritage breed turkeys at Root Down Farm in Pescadero, California. The turkeys she sells for Thanksgiving were born in May, so she has spent months thinking about how the coronavirus might impact the holidays.

Boies decided to harvest some turkeys early this year. It’s a gamble, because the birds gain...