Will OPEC+ Be Able To Meet Production Quotas In 2022?

In recent weeks, oil market participants have focused on the potential impact of the Omicron variant on demand and the expected surplus in early 2022, apparently forgetting about one major bullish driver next year—the inability of the OPEC+ group to pump as much oil as its rising monthly targets call for.  Estimates of a large oversupply in the first quarter of 2022 have mainly rested on the assumption that OPEC and its non-OPEC allies led by Russia would be able to deliver the planned 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in overall…