Hawaii hurricane season forecasted to be slow with La Nina

HONOLULU (AP) — Hawaii and the Central Pacific basin should expect two to four hurricanes, tropical depressions or tropical storms this year, federal forecasters said Wednesday.

The annual National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlook predicts there is a 60% chance of a below-average season. The Central Pacific region sees about four or five tropical cyclones on average annually.

Officials said below-average sea temperatures associated with La Nina east of Hawaii where storms form factored into this year’s prediction.

“This year we are predicting less activity in the Central Pacific region compared to normal seasons,” said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “The ongoing La Nina is likely to cause strong vertical wind shear, making it more difficult for hurricanes to develop or move into the Central Pacific Ocean.”

La Nina is a natural cooling of parts of the equatorial Pacific that alters weather patterns around the globe. The opposite El Nino pattern creates above average ocean temperatures and has been present during some of the most active Pacific hurricane seasons, including in 2015 when there were 16 storms in the Central Pacific basin.

The La Nina pattern has been present for several years.

“In the last 50 years, we have only had two other times where we’ve had (La Nina) three years in a row,” said National Weather Service hydrologist Kevin Kodama. “So this is a fairly rare occurrence.”

Officials said that even with a slow hurricane season predicted, it only takes one storm to cause a disaster.

Chris Brenchley, director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said that people need to be prepared, regardless of the optimistic outlook.

“It only takes one wandering into the vicinity of the...