U.S. Recession Fears May Be Overblown

Recession fears have so far been focused largely on the US. However, a recent note from Capital Economics to their clients predicts that we’re much more likely to see a recession in Europe. Are US Recession Fears Really Valid? Most US economists’ recession fears resulted from last month’s brief inversion in the spread between two-year and 10 -year US Treasury yields. Historically, this curve has inverted ahead of every US recession in the past 50 years. In fact, there has only been one significant false positive, and it was back…